Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

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https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/polar-vortex-weather-forecasting-good-now/581605/

Source:  By Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic.

Excerpt: The polar vortex is just the latest example of how reliable five-day forecasts have become. ... It is dangerous, record-breaking, can’t-look-away weather. Yet this cold snap’s arrival was preceded by a marvel so spectacular that we hardly noticed it: It was correctly predicted. As early as a month ago, forecasters knew that colder-than-average weather would likely strike North America this month; a week ago, computer models spit out some of the same figures that appeared on thermometers today. ...“A modern five-day forecast is as accurate as a one-day forecast was in 1980,” says a new paper, published last week in the journal Science. “Useful forecasts now reach nine to 10 days into the future.”...  See also How far out can we forecast the weather? Scientists have a new answer [https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/02/how-far-out-can-we-forecast-weather-scientists-have-new-answer] by Paul Voosen, Science Magazine, 2019-02-14

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