Hurricane Nigel, a Category 2 Storm, Is Expected to Weaken

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https://www.nytimes.com/article/tropical-storm-nigel-hurricane.html

By Judson Jones, The New York Times. 

Excerpt: ...The Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that there would be 12 to 17 named storms this year, a “near-normal” amount. On Aug. 10, NOAA officials revised their estimate upward, to 14 to 21 storms. ...A record 30 named storms took place in 2020. This year features an El Niño pattern, which arrived in June. ...it typically impedes the number of Atlantic hurricanes ...increases the amount of wind shear, .... Hurricanes need a calm environment to form, and the instability caused by increased wind shear makes those conditions less likely. (El Niño has the opposite effect in the Pacific, reducing the amount of wind shear.) At the same time, this year’s heightened sea surface temperatures pose a number of threats, including the ability to supercharge storms. ...There is solid consensus among scientists that hurricanes are becoming more powerful because of climate change. ...Climate change is also affecting the amount of rain that storms can produce. In a warming world, the air can hold more moisture, which means a named storm can hold and produce more rainfall, like Hurricane Harvey did in Texas in 2017, when some areas received more than 40 inches of rain in less than 48 hours. ...storms have slowed down, sitting over areas for longer, over the past few decades. ...the amount of moisture the storm can absorb increases. ...the amount of rain that falls over a single location increases; in 2019, for example, Hurricane Dorian slowed to a crawl over the northwestern Bahamas, resulting in a total rainfall of 22.84 inches in Hope Town during the storm.... For GSS Energy Flow chapter 8.

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