More than a Third of Coastal Alaska Structures May Be at Risk of Flooding by 2100
By Grace van Deelen, Eos/AGU.
Excerpt: As climate change continues to spur sea level rise and increase hurricane intensity, mapping possible future flooding is crucial. A new study, published in Scientific Reports, used community accounts of past floods to show how sea level rise is likely to make future floods worse. The work adds to scientists’ understanding of how climate change could affect Alaska’s coastal communities as part of a broader effort to improve flood modeling in the state. ...In the new study, researchers used the historical accounts to estimate current and future flood exposure. They compared record flooding to topography and the locations of buildings in 46 communities under two scenarios: 0.5 meter (1.6 feet) and 1.0 meter (3.3 feet) of sea level rise by 2100. NOAA estimates that global sea level will rise between 0.3 meter (1 foot) and 2 meters (6.6 feet) by 2100. The team found that currently, 22% of structures in coastal Alaskan communities are located within the record high floodplain, putting them at risk of flood damage. Under the 0.5-meter scenario, that number rose to 30%. But under the 1.0-meter scenario, the proportion of structures at risk grew to 37%. In each scenario, more than half of the structures at risk from flooding were residential....