The ocean current that warms Europe may be more resilient than feared

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By Paul Voosen, Science. 

Excerpt: After decades of warnings, new data suggest the Atlantic’s vital circulation may withstand climate warming better than feared. ...Climate models have long warned that global warming could weaken “deep-water formation”—the density-driven sinking that is the engine of the AMOC [Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation]. The logic is straightforward: As Greenland’s ice sheets melt and sea ice formation declines, North Atlantic waters will freshen. Combined with warmer sea temperatures, the freshening makes surface waters more buoyant. The AMOC was thought to have shut down abruptly during past climate warmings, and a handful of researchers now argue such a tipping point could occur this century. ...Yet for all the alarming headlines, most climate researchers think the AMOC is more resilient than these worst case scenarios make it seem. Emerging evidence suggests the AMOC may not have actually collapsed in the warm climates following ice ages. More detailed climate models suggest it could weaken but not collapse in the current surge of warming. And studies of the AMOC’s present behavior do not yet show any clear signs of trouble.... 

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